This past Wednesday, 26 Sep 2007, was the Fall 2007 Phineas L. Windsor Lecture at GSLIS.
Betty Sue Flowers, Director of the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum was the lecturer.
I must say I was kind of ambivalent about this lecture but I ended up truly enjoying it. I have, I believe, attended all of the Windsor Lectures since my arrival at GSLIS. Well, looking through the lectures page it seems I may have either missed one or simply do not remember it.
I have heard Betty Sue speak on two previous occasions, both via telephone in LEEP classes. In fact, I called her at her office on the 1st occasion as I was the Tech GA for that class. The 2nd time I was taking the class. She is a wonderful speaker but I am generally ambivalent—actively leaning towards the negative end—towards some of the topics she was to cover in the Windsor Lecture. Plus, she considers herself a futurist. On that topic, let’s just say I still haven’t got my damn flying car I was promised when I was a kid.
Enough about me; on to the lecture, keeping in mind that these are very sketchy notes. Also where I have used “” I do believe that I captured a direct, verbatim quote. Other cases may be also but are more likely a paraphrase.
Using the Future to Create the Present
“This field [LIS] is under-theorized to the outside world.”
Amen, but then many outside fields are also under-theorized by us! (me)
The trouble with the future is how the past blocks our vision of the future.
“Logic is an organized way to go wrong with confidence.” — attributed to a NASA head engineer on a project which she consulted for.
A-freakin’-men, brother! (me)
Our extrapolation from the past to the future is like this. [I.e., we infer the same from the past into the future. Thus, we are often wrong about the future; and we create bad futures due to lack of vision.]
We cannot know the future BUT we must have a story about it.
This I can fully agree with.
- How do we escape from extrapolating from the past to make the future better?
- Our stories of the future (and bad extrapolating from the past) affect the present.
- “The present is created by the story you’re telling of the future.”
- We need a clear distinction between fact and narrative. The story you tell about the facts are what influence/create the present.
How do we break out of the current story to a new plot?
Scenario planning:
- Equally plausible stories.
- Must hold the future as a fiction.
- Creating in a field of play allows one to support a position that they don’t have to stand by/defend as much as they might in a non-scenario case.
Stories of the United States – historically there have been 3 stories and we are now adding a 4th.
- Hero Myth – “brings out competition,” lack of communication as is individualistic.
- Religious Myth – “goodness.” [Religious more in the Joseph Campbell sense, not religion per se.]
- Democratic/Scientific/Enlightenment Myth- “truth,” “we can all reason together.”
- Economic Myth – “growth.”
- Pictures and numbers make this the 1st truly global myth.
- Has a kind of parity: my number is as good as your number; my bit is as good as your bit. [Ah, leveling ala Kierkegaard!]
- Growth implies interconnectedness – can create a field of possibilities never seen before – both good and ill.
Sorry for the sketchiness, but perhaps it will give you a flavor and you will make the effort to hear her speak if you ever have the chance. I would recommend it highly! There is a good possibility that this lecture will be available as streaming audio (Real) at the lecture archive link in the near future.
Plus, this allowed me to record my notes in a slightly more formal way than on the heavy paper handout they gave us as we entered the lecture.
On a slightly related note ["the future"], please have a look at, and comment on, this recent post by Jonathan Rochkind, “Notes on future directions of Library Systems.
I had a very quick read through yesterday and it looks pretty good on a first pass. He clearly admits where it needs fleshed out more; perhaps others can help him do so.